A framework for modelling customer invoice payment predictions

Abstract

By offering clients attractive credit terms on sales, a company may increase its turnover, but granting credit also incurs the cost of money tied up in accounts receivable (AR), increased administration and a heightened probability of incurring bad debt. The management of credit sales, although eminently important to any business, is often performed manually, which may be time-consuming, expensive and inaccurate. Such an administrative workload becomes increasingly cumbersome as the number of credit sales increases. As a result, a new approach towards proactively identifying invoices from AR accounts that are likely to be paid late, or not at all, has recently been proposed in the literature, with the aim of employing intervention strategies more effectively. Several computational techniques from the credit scoring literature and particularly techniques from the realms of survival analysis or machine learning have been embedded in the aforementioned approach. This body of work is, however, lacking due to the limited guidance provided during the data preparation phase of the model development process and because survival analytic and machine learning techniques have not yet been ensembled. In this paper, we propose a generic framework for modelling invoice payment predictions with the aim of facilitating the process of preparing transaction data for analysis, generating relevant features from past customer behaviours, and selecting and ensembling suitable models for predicting the time to payment associated with invoices. We also introduce a new sequential ensembling approach, called the Survival Boost algorithm. The rationale behind this method is that features generated by a survival analytic model can enhance the efficacy of a machine learning classification algorithm.