A fractional order model for Dual Variants of COVID-19 and HIV co-infection via Atangana-Baleanu derivative

Abstract

In this paper, a new mathematical model for dual variants of COVID-19 and HIV co-infection is presented and analyzed. The existence and uniqueness of the solution of the proposed model have been established using the well known Banach fixed point theorem. The model is solved semi-analytically using the Laplace Adomian decomposition Method. The impact of the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative on the dynamics of the proposed model is studied. The work also highlights the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the dynamics of the co-infection of both diseases. The model is fitted to real COVID-19 data from Botswana. The impact of COVID-19 variants on HIV prevalence using simulations is also assessed. Simulation for the class of individuals co-infected with HIV and the wild or Delta COVID-19 variant reveals a significant decrease, as vaccination rate is increased. The impact of fractional order on different epidemiological classes is also studied. Drawing the plot of total infected population with the wild and Delta COVID-19 variants, at different vaccination rates, it is concluded that, as vaccination rate is increased, there is a significant reduction in population infected with the wild and delta COVID-19 variants. The plot of class of individuals co-infected with HIV and the wild or Delta COVID-19 variant is more interesting; as vaccination rate is increased, the co-infected populations experience a significant decrease. Thus, stepping up vaccination against the different variants of COVID-19 could reduce co-infection cases largely, among people already infected with HIV.