A forecasting model of the magnetosphere driven by an optimal solar wind coupling function

Abstract

AbstractA new empirical magnetospheric magnetic field model is described, driven by interplanetary parameters including a coupling function by Newell et al. (2007), termed henceforth as “N index.” The model uses data from Polar, Geotail, Cluster, and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms satellites, obtained in 1995–2013 at distances 3–60 RE. The model magnetopause is based on Lin et al. (2010) boundary driven by the solar wind pressure, IMF Bz, and the geodipole tilt. The model field includes contributions from the symmetric ring current (SRC), partial ring current (PRC) with associated Region 2 field‐aligned currents (R2 FAC), tail, Region 1 (R1) FAC, and a penetrated IMF. Increase in the N index results in progressively larger magnitudes of all the field sources, the most dramatic and virtually linear growth being found for the PRC and R1 FAC. The solar wind dynamic pressure Pdyn affects the model magnetotail current in proportion to the factor , where the exponent ζ on the order of 0.4–0.6 steadily decreases with increasing N index. The PRC peaks near midnight at N ∼ 0 but turns duskward with growing N. At ionospheric altitudes, both R1 and R2 FAC expand equatorward with growing N and Pdyn, and the R2 zone rotates westward. Larger values of N result in a more efficient penetration of the IMF into the magnetosphere and larger magnetic flux connection across the magnetopause. Growing dipole tilt is accompanied by a persistent and significant decrease of the total current in all magnetospheric field sources.