A földrengéskockázat elemzése valószínűségi módszerrel

Abstract

The goal of seismic hazard engineering analyses is to ensure that the planned structures can withstand a given level of ground shaking. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the location, size and resulting ground motion intensity of future earthquakes. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) tries to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description of the future shaking that may occur at a site.This work demonstrates the application of the method by specific calculative example. The probability (that is more than the average) of ground motion intensity is calculated by PSHA equations in the most dangerous zone of Hungary regarding earthquakes.We can read only a little about the mathematical background of the PSHA method in Hungarian journals or books. The aim of this work is to help the reader understand the application and the limitations of PSHA with the help of the probability theory.