Abstract
Collapse is one of the main dangers of tunnel construction using the drill-blast method. To assess the risk of collapse and provide a basis for risk control, a failure probability evaluation method for tunnel collapse based on a Bayesian network (BN) and normal cloud theory is proposed in this paper. First, typical tunnel collapse cases are analysed statistically based on the risk breakdown structure method, a Bayesian network model is built for drill-blast tunnel collapse and the causal relationships between the tunnel collapse and influential factors, such as geological factors and construction management factors, are revealed. Second, the multiple fault states of the risk factors are described using fuzzy numbers. A multi-state fuzzy conditional probability table of uncertain logical relationships between nodes is established using normal cloud theory to describe node failure probabilities. Finally, this paper will consider the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including pre-incident, dynamic evaluation of the construction process and post-incident control. A typical tunnel collapse incident encountered during the construction of the Jinzuba Tunnel in Fujian was used as an example to verify the applicability of the method.
Highlights
With the vigorous development of highway and railway construction, road traffic has extended into mountainous areas, making tunnel construction larger-scale and more complex, especially in developing countries, such as China
The results show that the proposed multistate cloud Bayesian network (MCBN) approach is feasible and has application potential
To test the validity and applicability of the MCBN approach, this study examines the risk of tunnel collapse in a tunnel construction project
Summary
With the vigorous development of highway and railway construction, road traffic has extended into mountainous areas, making tunnel construction larger-scale and more complex, especially in developing countries, such as China. Highway tunnel construction frequently has safety violations due to the various risk factors of the complex project environment. Collapse is one of the most frequent and harmful geological hazards during the construction of a tunnel. Because it is difficult to predict collapse, which is sudden and instantaneous, the constructors do not have enough time to escape. It can result in significant construction delays, economic loss, and even human casualties. It is necessary to investigate the risk mechanism of tunnel collapse by real-time safety analysis and considering accident scenarios, with the goal of providing decision support for ensuring the safety of tunnel construction
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