A dynamic spatial–temporal deep learning framework for traffic speed prediction on large-scale road networks

Abstract

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in an intelligent transportation system (ITS) for enabling advanced transportation management and services. In this paper, we address the problem of multi-step traffic speed prediction, including both short- and long-term predictions. We assert that it is important to consider not just the fixed spatial dependency of the road network (i.e., the connections between road segments) but also the dynamic spatial dependency of traffic within the static topology that intertwines with the temporal evolution of traffic condition across the entire network. We propose a novel deep learning model, named Self-Attention Graph Convolutional Network with Spatial, Sub-spatial and Temporal blocks (SAGCN-SST) model, that specifically capture such complex dynamic spatial–temporal processes. In SAGCN-SST, we integrate self-attention mechanism into graph convolutional networks in a novel framework design while using a sequence-to-sequence model in an encoder–decoder architecture for extracting long-temporal dependency of traffic speed. Two real-world datasets with frequent traffic congestion and accidents from large-scale road networks (i.e., Seattle and Los Angeles) are used to train and test our model. Our experiment results indicate that the proposed deep learning model consistently achieves the most accurate predictions (higher than 98% accuracy on both datasets for the short- and long-term predictions) when compared against well-known existing models in recent literature. The results also indicate that SAGCN-SST is robust against emergent traffic situations.