A Dynamic Analytics Method Based on Multistage Modeling for a BOF Steelmaking Process

Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic analytics method based on the least squares support vector machine with a hybrid kernel to address real-time prediction problems in the converter steelmaking process. The hybrid kernel function is used to enhance the performance of the existing kernels. To improve the model’s accuracy, the internal parameters are optimized by a differential evolution algorithm. In light of the complex mechanisms of the converter steelmaking process, a multistage modeling strategy is designed instead of the traditional single-stage modeling method. Owing to the dynamic nature of the practical production process, great effort has been made to construct a dynamic model that uses the prediction error information based on the static model. The validity of the proposed method is verified through experiments on real-world data collected from a basic oxygen furnace steelmaking process. The results indicate that the proposed method can successfully solve dynamic prediction problems and outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in terms of prediction accuracy. Note to Practitioners —With the development of cyber-physical systems, abundant real-time data have been collected from the converter steelmaking process. These data provide an opportunity to solve product quality prediction problems using data-driven models. This paper proposes a dynamic analytics method based on the least squares support vector machine with a hybrid kernel to address this challenging issue. To improve the model’s performance, a differential evolution algorithm is used to optimize its parameters. Because of the fierce physicochemical reaction in the converter furnace, it is difficult for a single-stage model to achieve accurate predictions. Thus, a multistage modeling strategy is proposed to address this difficulty, and a dynamic model based on feedback error is developed to realize real-time prediction. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed method using real data from a basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steelmaking process. The computational results reveal that the proposed method has a higher prediction accuracy than other methods, making it helpful in guaranteeing the specified product quality and in maintaining stable BOF operation.