Abstract
The extensively cited concept of a ‘two-step’ or ‘sequential’ transition path from the present petroleum to coal to renewable primary energy systems is reviewed. An envelope of possible transition paths is described. The boundaries of this envelope, i.e. ‘immediate replacement’ and ‘adequately funded aggressive pursuit’, are investigated using a simulation of simple systems. A hypothetical ‘stable’ energy system is described using the same simulation. The nature of the resource recovery requirements for the evolution of a ‘stable’ system is compared to historical experience of the time required to achieve the start of meaningful market penetration of new technologies. It is suggested that delay in the implementation of any transition presents increasingly difficult problems to successive generations. The concept of a ‘trigger’ time, at which ‘cost-parity’ is achieved, being the time at which the transition to renewable energy systems will start in a free enterprise, free market system is discussed. Open questions are raised regarding the adequacy of this mechanism to drive the transition to renewable systems at the rates suggested to be required by the simulations.
Published Version
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