A Demographic Model for Estimating Age-Order Specific Fertility Rates

Abstract

Abstract The demographic model demonstrated in the following was designed to estimate fertility among women of a given age by order of birth of child. Estimations as to age-specific and age-order specific birth rates were made using three basic parameters that define the statistical structure of the model in terms of age limits of the female reproductive span and the maximum age-specific, or age-order specific, birth rate. For comparison of the indices theoretically computed by means of the formula, observed rates of livebirths for women in the United States and in the State of Washington were used. The results so far obtained show a remarkably high agreement between the observed and the expected rates. The model is primarily designed to generate the temporal types of fertility measures. Only under certain conditions, restricted to stable or “quasi-stable” populations, can the model be applied to measure cohort fertility. Various hypotheses are advanced concerning related areas of inquiry that might be suitable for possible application of the model. Suggestions for further research and experimentation are included, with special emphasis on the populations of non-industrialized countries.