Abstract
Risk assessment in projects requires the integration of various information on project characteristics as well as external and internal sources of uncertainty and is based on assumptions about future and project vulnerability. Complexity is a major source of uncertainty that decreases the predictability of project outputs. In this research, the aim was to develop a decision-support tool that can estimate the level of risk and required contingency in a project by assessment of complexity factors as well as contextual information such as contract conditions and mitigation strategies. A process model and a tool were developed using the data of 11 mega construction projects. The tool was tested on a real project, and promising results were obtained about its usability. The tool has the potential to support decision-making during bidding in construction projects with its visualization and prediction features. On the other hand, as a limited number of cases and experts were involved in this study, findings on its performance cannot be generalized. The identified complexity and risk factors, proposed process model, and visual representations may help the development of similar decision-support tools according to different company needs.
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