Abstract

In this paper we will present early work on using a DDDAS based approach to the construction of probabilistic estimates of volcanic ash transport and dispersal. Our primary modeling tools will be a combination of a plume eruption model BENT and the ash transport model PUFF. Data from satellite imagery, observation of vent parameters and windfields will drive our simulations. We will use uncertainty quantification methodology – polynomial chaos quadrature in combination with data integration to complete the DDDAS loop.

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