Using an Ensemble Filter to Improve the Representation of Temporal Source Variations in a Volcanic Ash Forecasting System

Abstract

The use of ensemble models to forecast the dispersion and transport of airborne volcanic ash in operational contexts is increasingly being explored. The ensemble members are usually constructed to represent a priori uncertainty estimates in meteorological fields and volcanic ash source parameters. Satellite data can be used to further filter ensemble members within an analysis time window by rejecting poorly performing members, leading to improved forecasts. In this study, the ensemble filtering technique is used to improve the representation of temporal source variations. Ensemble members are initially created by representing the source time variations as random functions of time that are modulated by crude initial estimates of the variations estimated from satellite imagery. Ensemble filtering is then used to remove members whose fields match poorly with observations within a specified analysis time window that are represented by satellite retrievals of volcanic ash properties such as mass load, effective radius, and cloud top height. The filtering process leads to an ensemble with statistics in closer agreement with the observations. It is shown in the context of the 30 May 2014 Sangeang Api eruption case study that this method leads to significantly enhanced forecasting skill beyond the analysis time window—about 20% improvement on average—when compared to a system that assumes constant emission rates for the duration of the eruption, as is the case in many operational volcanic ash forecasting systems.