Abstract

Cacao production systems in Colombia are of high importance due to their direct impact in the social and economic development of smallholder farmers. Although Colombian cacao has the potential to be in the high value markets for fine flavour, the lack of expert support as well as the use of traditional, and often times sub-optimal technologies makes cacao production negligible. Traditionally, cacao harvest takes place at exactly the same time regardless of the geographic and climatic region where it is grown, the problem with this strategy is that cacao beans are often unripe or over matured and a combination of both will negatively affect the quality of the final cacao product. Since cacao fruit development can be considered as the result of a number of physiological and morphological processes that can be described by mathematical relationships even under uncontrolled environments. Environmental parameters that have more association with pod maturation speed should be taken into account to decide the appropriate time to harvest. In this context, crop models are useful tools to simulate and predict crop development over time and under multiple environmental conditions. Since harvesting at the right time can yield high quality cacao, we parameterised a crop model to predict the best time for harvest cacao fruits in Colombia. The cacao model uses weather variables such as temperature and solar radiation to simulate the growth rate of cocoa fruits from flowering to maturity. The model uses thermal time as an indicator of optimal maturity. This model can be used as a practical tool that supports cacao farmers in the production of high quality cacao which is usually paid at a higher price. When comparing simulated and observed data, our results showed an RRMSE of 7.2% for the yield prediction, while the simulated harvest date varied between +/−2 to 20 days depending on the temperature variations of the year between regions. This crop model contributed to understanding and predicting the phenology of cacao fruits for two key cultivars ICS95 y CCN51.

Highlights

  • Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is an important worldwide perennial tropical crop endemic to the South American rainforests [1,2,3,4]

  • The results showed that thermal time Tb is correlated (r = 0.52) with daily average temperature and maximum temperature (TMAX) and temperature minimum (TMIN) and Dew Frost Point at 2 m (T2MDEW) with a correlation coefficient of p = 0.60

  • Less clear correlations were found for months of flowering (monthF) with T2MDEW, relative humidity (RH), WS2M and rain

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Summary

Introduction

Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is an important worldwide perennial tropical crop endemic to the South American rainforests [1,2,3,4]. Cacao plants are members of the Malvaceae (formerly Sterculiaceae) botanical family of which cotton Gossypium hirstium [5] is a member. Cacao is grown for its fruits, known as cacao pods [6,7], which are mainly consumed as beverages. In Colombia, cacao is one of the crops promoted by the Colombian government in the social and agricultural development programs aimed at favouring peace in post-conflict regions [4,8]. Cacao in Colombia is grown by approximately 52,000 rural families [9] of which 98% are small and medium-sized producers [10,11]. Colombia registered an increase of 3750 tons in cacao production in 2020 compared to the previous year [12]

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