A critical analysis of travel demand estimation for new one-way carsharing systems

Abstract

Technologic advancements have contributed to the spread of sharing economy concepts, a developing phenomenon that favors the shift from private mobility to service-use (shared mobility). One-way carsharing is a most recent and popular kind of shared mobility, that is growing and developing rapidly in various forms. These systems are considered to have a transformative impact on future urban transportation. Despite all of the benefits that have been reported from the use of new one-way carsharing (e.g. Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems), their impacts on the mobility are not certain yet. This comes from the fact that in such services supply and demand influence each other in a significant way in short-, mid-, and long-term. Also service characteristics at the level of each vehicle strongly affect the demand. In this paper methods, paradigms, toolkits and platforms used in the literature for the demand estimation of the new one-way carsharing systems, as well as their potential drawbacks are discussed. A review of the literature reveals that despite the considerable number of studies related to balancing vehicle stocks across stations in one-way systems, the investigation about demand estimation of such services for which the complex relationship between supply and demand is considered, remain very limited. The majority of current platforms and toolkits used for demand estimation of new one-way carsharing systems are based on activity-based multi-agent simulations. In these simulations several main components are not yet taken into account, which could dramatically change the results. Data detail, accessibility and reliability, high computational time, calibration and validation still remain major challenges for travel demand estimation for one-way carsharing systems.