A CRITIC-TOPSIS and optimized nonlinear grey prediction model: A comparative convergence analysis of marine economic resilience

Abstract

The strength of marine economic resilience (MER) determines whether a region can maintain its original development path or fall into stagnation in the face of economic shock, which is an important starting point for promoting marine economic sustainable development. We discuss the connotation and propose a logical framework for MER, which is estimated by CRITIC-TOPSIS method from 2006 to 2019 based on three dimensions (country, region, province). Furthermore, the temporal evolution trend and regional disparities are accessed by Dagum Gini coefficient. Results reveal that MER has shown a significant upward trend, and it is undergoing gradient change in China, and unfortunately, the specific performance is in the imbalance, and lack of coordination of MER in the southern marine economic circle is the most prominent. Foreseeably, the novel fractional nonlinear grey model with double optimization (DOFNGBM(1,1)) combining Grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is proposed and its performance is examined. Ulteriorly, as predicted by DOFNGBM(1,1) and presented by σ convergence and β convergence models, based on the cross-comparison between in-sample and out-of-sample, significant findings indicate that weak convergence of China’s MER indicates that coastal areas with a low level have faster improvement rates, and MER in China will present different ways of growing delightedly. Comparatively, considering the driving factors of marine economic resilience, all of them are proven to be conducive to raising the steady-state value of MER to a higher level, despite the regional heterogeneity of their effects. Purposefully, it implies that diversified development and synergistic cooperation can improve the endogenous power of marine economic resilience.