A crime risk-based approach for urban planning. A methodological proposal

Abstract

The issue of urban security is of great importance in city policies and a prerequisite for the creation of sustainable cities and communities. The pursuit of secure conditions requires the integration of different existing approaches in order to achieve effective and lasting results. The methodology focuses on the crime risk concept, for which no instrument currently available in Literature provides an unambiguous definition or complete assessment. The aim of the research is the definition of a risk model in which the different security approaches converge and maximise their synergy through the construction of a Spatial Composite Crime Risk Index (IRc), structured according to the disaster risk paradigm. Its spatial nature allows the spatial component of crime risk to be highlighted. The associated crime risk map gives a snapshot of the risk conditions in the area under study. It highlights the presence, the magnitude and the superficial extension of the critical areas for which appropriate intervention strategies can be envisaged. The model was applied to the city of Milan. The quantitative result obtained, i.e. the crime risk map, confirms the usefulness and effectiveness of introducing the latter into the information layers used when defining Urban Planning tools. This would allow an in-depth analysis of the territory through the construction of risk scenarios.