Constructing Dynamic Scenarios of Crime Risk Exposure. A Methodological Proposal Based on Geo-Social Media Data

Abstract

AbstractThe topic of urban security is at once a necessity and an important challenge for cities and metropolitan areas. The daily occurrence of predatory crimes or environmental and social incivility increase insecurity, both real and perceived by citizens, and fear of crime. The widespread fear is a social problem whose impacts on the city’ s functioning and the economy of the whole urban structure are actual and measurable. Crime risk prevention plays a fundamental role in creating sustainable cities and communities, as confirmed by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda, in particular SDG 11 [1]. The proposed research addresses the issue through a quantitative model of crime risk mapping. The latter is based on a spatially explicit composite crime risk index, IRc [2] constructed as a function of three factor-maps: crime hazard (Hc), crime vulnerability (Vc) and crime exposure (Ec). In this paper, the focus is on Ec and on the possibility of constructing dynamic scenarios of crime exposure and crime risk using geo-social media data.KeywordsCrime risk exposureGeo-social media dataUrban planning