A coupled PSR-based framework for holistic modeling and flood resilience assessment: A case study of the 2022 flood events in five southern provinces of China

Abstract

In the context of global climate change, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has led to increasingly severe disaster situations. Traditional disaster management approaches are inadequate for addressing these challenges; thus, the concept of resilience has gradually been integrated into disaster management strategies. This study addresses this gap by developing a semi-quantitative evaluation framework for flood resilience on a large, regional scale. This framework combines the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model with a dynamic representation of flood resilience processes, incorporating pre-disaster resistance, during-disaster absorption, and post-disaster recovery. A comprehensive regional flood resilience index system (RFRI) is constructed to provide a holistic assessment of flood resilience throughout the disaster cycle. This study quantified flood resilience and utilized Geographic Information System spatial analysis to evaluate the spatial patterns of flood resilience at the municipal level. The evaluation framework was applied to a real flood disaster that affected five southern provinces of China in 2022. The results indicate that: (1) The overall flood resilience levels in the five southern provinces were relatively low, with only 6% of the units having a Flood Resilience Index (FRI) exceeding 0.6; and (2) in terms of pre-disaster resistance, 74% of municipalities in the five southern provinces of China exhibited a moderate or higher level of resilience. However, the overall performance of these provinces is relatively poor in terms of absorption during disasters and post-disaster recovery; (3) The development of flood resilience systems in the five provinces was severely imbalanced, with only two municipal-level cities having an FRI above 0.8, both of which are located in Guangdong Province. The evaluation framework established in this study enables rapid and accurate quantitative assessment of flood resilience at the municipal level. It aids in identifying deficiencies in the flood resilience systems of various regions, thereby strengthening efforts to build flood resilience.