A Construction Schedule Robustness Measure Based on Improved Prospect Theory and the Copula-CRITIC Method

Mengqi Zhao,Linli Xue,Xiaoling Wang,Shuai Yang,Jia Yu

doi:10.3390/app10062013

Abstract

A robustness measure is an effective tool to evaluate the anti-interference capacity of the construction schedule. However, most research focuses on solution robustness or quality robustness, and few consider a composite robustness criterion, neglecting the bounded rationality of subjective weights and inherent importance and nonlinear intercriteria correlations of objective weights. Therefore, a construction schedule robustness measure based on improved prospect theory and the Copula-criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) method is proposed. Firstly, a composite robustness criterion is established, including start time deviation rs and structural deviation rp for measuring solution robustness from project execution and completion probability rc for measuring quality robustness from the project result. Secondly, bounded rationality is considered, using prospect theory to calculate subjective weights, which is improved by the interval distance formula. Thirdly, the Copula-CRITIC method is proposed to determine objective weights incorporating both inherent importance and nonlinear intercriteria correlations. Finally, an information-entropy-based evidence reasoning method is applied to combine subjective and objective weights together while identifying their validity. An underground power station in China is used for a case study, whose robustness is measured using the proposed methods, single robustness criterion, and composite robustness criterion using traditional weighting methods. The comparison results verify the consistency, representativeness, and advantage of the proposed criterion and methods.

Highlights

As the basis of quantitative research on schedule robustness, robustness measures are an effective tool to measure the anti-interference ability of schedules [1]
It is of great importance to measure the schedule robustness comprehensively, which considers both solution robustness from project execution and quality robustness from project execution, in addition to the bounded rationality of subjective weights and the inherent importance and nonlinear intercriteria correlations of objective weights
The measured results of the proposed criterion and methods are compared with the results using either the solution robustness or the quality solution, and the results using the composite criterion based on traditional weighting methods including analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for subjective weighting [23], entropy weighting method for objective weighting [36] and geometric mean method for combining weights [40]

Summary

Introduction

As the basis of quantitative research on schedule robustness, robustness measures are an effective tool to measure the anti-interference ability of schedules [1]. Solution robustness refers to the deviation between the planned and the actual schedule, which measures the robustness from the perspective of project execution. Quality robustness refers to the deviation between the planned and the actual construction duration, which measures the robustness from the perspective of the project result. Current research mostly focuses on a single robustness criterion, and few consider a composite robustness criterion, neglecting the bounded rationality of subjective weights and the inherent importance and nonlinear intercriteria correlations of objective weights. It is of great importance to measure the schedule robustness comprehensively, which considers both solution robustness from project execution and quality robustness from project execution, in addition to the bounded rationality of subjective weights and the inherent importance and nonlinear intercriteria correlations of objective weights

Results

Discussion

Conclusion