Abstract
Global issues are such that we should assess and manage a variety of risks and uncertainties. Due to increasing world complexity, the development of an adequate and innovative conceptual framework, anchored in the literature, is required. This article contributes to this effort with an approach particularly relevant to decision-makers dealing with threats of different natures, limited heterogeneous information, and experts’ assessments tainted by doubts. Our approach is based on two pillars: 1) An “acuity scale”, based on the probability of the occurrence of an event, its impact and the experts’ degree of doubt; 2) A taxonomy focused on the concepts of risk, uncertainty, gamble and butterfly ambiguity. Accordingly, we present in a second step the major management implications of such approach. Global policy trends (e.g., sustainability transition) put energy sector decision-makers at the forefront of risk and uncertainty management. Consequently, we carry out a case study focused on Swiss energy policy since the 1980s, including its inception, the turnaround provoked by the Fukushima accident, and the government’s 2050 energy strategy. Our investigation shows that the proposed conceptual framework allows for the development of an original analysis of the main drivers that influence governmental policies and stakeholder strategies.
Highlights
The world as we know it is tainted by risk, uncertainty and ambiguity
Another important driver was the threat of climate change, while gas supply security could have played a significant role if a unilateral decision by certain exporting countries had destabilized the European market
The approach developed in this article can be useful whenever decision-makers and stakeholders face complex problems and only possess limited and heterogeneous information, as in the case of energy transition
Summary
The world as we know it is tainted by risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. These concepts have been shaped by a long intellectual history, at the beginning of which we find thinkers such as Pascale and the Bernoullis [1]. The approach is, above all, useful when decision-makers and stakeholders face complex problems, including a large number of variables of different nature, and only possess limited and heterogenous information. This is often the case when defining or evaluating energy policies and strategies. This article provides a case study focused on Swiss energy policy since the 1980s, including its inception, the turnaround provoked by the Fukushima accident, and the government’s 2050 energy strategy This analysis makes it possible to verify the relevance, the usefulness and the limits of our approach. The limits of our approach and the research required for further developments are highlighted
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