A conceptual framework integrating numerical simulation with system theory based method for quantitative explosion process hazard analysis

Abstract

Explosion is a significant threat to chemical process safety, which often occurs suddenly with a wide range of impact, resulting in catastrophic disasters. Predictions of explosion hazards are required for regional safety assessment and disaster resilience enhancement of chemical industrial parks (CIPs). This paper, therefore, aims to develop a conceptual framework for systematically analyzing explosion evolutions and quantifying the potential hazards by combining system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) method with numerical simulation. The proposed framework consists of 5 steps: (i) establishment of hierarchical safe control structures (SCSs) of important chemical processing zones in the CIP, (ii) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling for potential explosion evolutions in each zone by changing the examined parameters randomly, (iii) development of a convolutional neural network (CNN) prediction model through constant self-learning of CFD pressure field data, (iv) comprehensive assessment of blast damage by incorporating the outputs of the above numerical models into existing evaluation methods, (v) identification of unsafety control actions and causes, and safety constraints for the improvement of SCSs. Provided with monitoring data, the developed analysis architecture can predict explosion process hazards and recommend appropriate safety strategies in real time. This would service the multi-level requirements for explosion prevention and protection, supporting better-informed decision-making. The paper describes the concepts and implementation process of the method as a first step.