A computer model of international violence

Abstract

This paper undertakes an analysis of various propositions (prevalent in the literature) concerning international violence. A computer model is developed as the framework for the testing of hypotheses on agitators of conflict (status inconsistency, internal war, relative increase in opponent's power, lost territory, economic dominance, systemic opponents, military alliances) inhibitors of conflict (trade, tourists, emigrants, turmoil, intergovernmental organizations, political value similarity), and military power. Utilizing data from the Dimensionality of Nations Project for 1950, 1955, 1960, 1963, and 1965, the hypotheses are judged according to the number of accurate predictions of violence and nonviolence that are made by the model. The author finds that status inconsistency, lost territory, and military alliances are important causes of international violence. Inhibiting this tendency toward violence are turmoil, tourists, political value similarity and military power.