A Computationally Efficient Approach to Fully Bayesian Benchmarking

Abstract

In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that aggregates of small area estimates agree with national estimates for internal consistency purposes. Enforcing this agreement is referred to as benchmarking, and while methods currently exist to perform benchmarking, few are ideal for applications with non-normal outcomes and benchmarks with uncertainty. Fully Bayesian benchmarking is a theoretically appealing approach insofar as we can obtain posterior distributions conditional on a benchmarking constraint. However, existing implementations may be computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we critically review benchmarking methods in the context of small area estimation in low- and middle-income countries with binary outcomes and uncertain benchmarks, and propose a novel approach in which posterior samples of small area characteristics from an unbenchmarked model can be combined with a rejection sampler or Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to produce benchmarked posterior distributions in a computationally efficient way. To illustrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach, we provide comparisons to an existing benchmarking approach in a simulation, and applications to HIV prevalence and under-5 mortality estimation. Code implementing our methodology is available in the R package stbench.