A comprehensive risk assessment of Chinese high-speed railways affected by multiple meteorological hazards

Abstract

Meteorological hazards pose a significant risk to the operation and safety of the Chinese railway system. As China Railway High-speed (CRH) has become a vital part of the Chinese transportation infrastructure, an improved understanding of the spatial pattern of multiple hazards across the railway network is urgently needed, especially in the context of accelerated climate change. This study provides a spatial analysis of the dominant meteorological hazards affecting the CRH network (i.e., gales, rainfall, and snow), in terms of both intensity and frequency, and identifies hazard zones according to CRH operating standards. Given that meteorological hazards can lead to speed limitation or disruption of CRH trains, a risk matrix model is developed based on hazard intensity and designated railway speed to comprehensively assess the risk level of CRH lines in China. Risk assessment indicates that CRH lines exposed to hazardous levels of gales, rainfall, and snow account for 6.0%, 29.3%, and 20.0% of the total line length, respectively, while 7.3% of CRH lines are exposed to multiple hazards. Meteorological risk maps for CRH operation reveal hotspot lines that require special adaptive or preventative measures, and emergency protocols to reduce potential losses and disruptions.