A Comprehensive Review of Modern Methods for Load Prediction in the Smart Grid

Abstract

: Load forecasting plays a crucial role in mitigating risks for utilities by predicting future usage of commodity markets transmission or supplied by the utility. To achieve this, various techniques such as price elastic demand, climate and consumer response, load analysis, and sustainable energy generation predictive modelling are used. As both supply and demand fluctuate, and weather and power prices can rise significantly during peak periods, accurate load forecasting becomes critical for utilities. By providing brief demand forecasts, load forecasting can assist in estimating load flows and making decisions that prevent overloading. Therefore, load forecasting is crucial in helping electric utilities make informed decisions related to power, load switching, voltage regulation, switching, and infrastructure development. Forecasting is a methodology used by electricity companies to forecast the amount of electricity or power production needed to maintain constant supply as well as load demand balance. It is required for the electrical industry to function properly. The smart grid is a new system that enables electricity providers and customers to communicate in real-time. The precise energy consumption sequence of the consumers is required to enhance the demand schedule. This is where predicting the future comes into play. Forecasting future power system load (electricity consumption) is a critical task in providing intelligence to the power grid. Accurate forecasting allows utility companies to allocate resources and assume system control in order to balance the same demand and availability for electricity. In this article, a study on load forecasting algorithms based on deep learning, machine learning, hybrid methods, bio-inspired techniques, and other techniques is carried out. Many other algorithms based on load forecasting are discussed in this study. Different methods of load forecasting were compared using three performance indices: RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and Accuracy. Machine learning-based techniques showed a reduction of 9.17% in MAPE, 0.0429% in RMSE, and 5.23% in MSE, and achieved 90% accuracy. Deep learning-based techniques resulted in a 9.61% decrease in MAPE and achieved 91% accuracy. Bioinspired techniques provided a reduction of 9.66% in MAPE, 0.026% in RMSE, and 5.24% in MSE, and achieved 95% accuracy. These findings concluded that optimization techniques are more encouraging in predicting load demand and, as a result, can represent a reliable decision-making tool.