Abstract
Coping with climate change requires promoting low-carbon energy transition (LCET) in cities. However, the planning method of LCET for rapidly growing cities deserves further study because it involves dynamicity and interactions of multiple factors. This paper aims to put forward a comprehensive methodology to fill that gap. First, a theoretical framework of “energy system–sustainability–governance–operation of rapidly growing cities” is put forward to explain the general mechanism of LCET. Second, a three step method is built for LCET planning, including energy system analysis based on low emissions analysis platform modeling, operation analysis applying multilevel perspective and stakeholder theories, and governance evaluation by policy review. To verify this method, a city in Western China, Chengdu, was selected as the case study. The results show that Chengdu’s energy related CO2 emissions are expected to peak in 2025 under timely and aggressive measures. The main obstacles lie in three aspects: techno–economic insufficiencies, lack of social cognition, and problems of institution and policy. To realize this scenario, Chengdu must incorporate the target and pathway of a carbon peak as soon as possible into its policy system and enhance the coordination among governmental departments.
Highlights
After implementing a series of energy-saving and emission-reduction measures, the energy consumption under the Integrated Scenario (INT) scenario will decrease from 25.64% to 66.16 Mtce in 2035, with an annual growth rate of 2.06%
The continuous growth of the economy and population will drive the continuous increase in total energy consumption and total energy related carbon emissions in Chengdu, which will threaten the realization of the low carbon goal in the future
This study put forward a comprehensive methodology for planning the low-carbon energy transition (LCET) of rapidly growing cities
Summary
Previous studies of urban LCET focus more on developed cities, while the attention to rapidly growing cities is insufficient For developed cities, such as New York [4], Sydney [5], and Aalborg [6], their economic development has tended to be stable. Especially those in emerging economies such as China, the urban population is pouring in quickly, many infrastructures are in the building stage, and the urban economy is maintaining rapid growth. They normally have a continuous increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions [7]. Many scholars have called for more attention to the LCET of rapidly growing cities [9,10,11]
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