Abstract
Currently, the quality of wind measure of a site is assessed using Wind Power Density (WPD). This paper proposes to use a more credible metric namely, one we call the Wind Power Potential (WPP). While the former only uses wind speed information, the latter exploits both wind speed and wind direction distributions, and yields more credible estimates. The new measure of quality of a wind resource, the Wind Power Potential Evaluation (WPPE) model, investigates the effect of wind velocity distribution on the optimal net power generation of a farm. Bivariate normal distribution is used to characterize the stochastic variation of wind conditions (speed and direction). The net power generation for a particular farm size and installed capacity are maximized for different distributions of wind speed and wind direction, using the Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology. A response surface is constructed, using the recently developed Reliability Based Hybrid Functions (RBHF), to represent the computed maximum power generation as a function of the parameters of the wind velocity (speed and direction) distribution. To this end, for any farm site, we can (i) estimate the parameters of wind velocity distribution using recorded wind data, and (ii) predict the maximum power generation for a specified farm size and capacity, using the developed response surface. The WPPE model is validated through recorded wind data at four differing stations obtained from the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN). The results illustrate the variation of wind conditions and, subsequently, its influence on the quality of a wind resource.
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