Abstract
Ultra-short-term wind power forecasting (UWPF) is crucial for the large-scale grid connection of wind energy. The state grid in China has strict multi-step forecasting requirements, which pose challenges to on-site efficiency and accuracy. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework of the hybrid method for UWPF with on-site application, consisting of data decomposition, model prediction, and post-processing. In the first stage, rolling decomposition and feature reconstruction are employed to decompose the wind power data into sub-components without future information leakage. The feature extraction and model matching processes are then performed to make full use of different machine learning prediction models and distinct characteristics of wind power components. Finally, a novel error tracking strategy is proposed to enable real-time error correction for multi-step forecasting by capturing the fluctuation characteristics of wind power data. The proposed framework is evaluated on two field wind power datasets through comparative experiments with five benchmark methods and nine reference methods. The experimental results demonstrate that (a) Each module of the proposed method effectively contributes to improving forecasting accuracy. (b) The proposed method significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods in both single-step and multi-step forecasts, indicating its capability to handle practical UWPF tasks effectively.
Published Version
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