A comprehensive analysis of trends in extreme precipitation over southeastern coast of Brazil

Abstract

ABSTRACTSoutheast Brazil (SE Brazil) is the most densely populated region in Brazil. Previous studies have shown evidence of positive trends in average precipitation and extreme events in a few locations, suggesting the increase in rainfall‐related hazards with potential impacts to urbanized areas of SE Brazil. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial variability of trends in extreme precipitation over SE Brazil focusing on regional and local scales. We examine two daily rainfall datasets with more than 70 years of data: individual stations and gridded observed precipitation data. Our results indicate that the frequency of both rainy days and extreme daily precipitation events have increased in Sao Paulo state. Conversely, precipitation has become more concentrated in fewer events in Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo states where both data sets indicate positive trends in the intensity of extreme daily rainfall. The increases in frequency and intensity of extreme events have both contributed to positive trends in total seasonal and average daily precipitation over Sao Paulo. Additionally, the individual stations indicate negative trends in the number of light rainy days over large urbanized areas in the state of Sao Paulo. The spatial patterns of trends indicate that they are influenced by the proximity of large urban centres and topographic features, and also suggest variations and changes in the major climatic systems affecting precipitation regimes over SE.