A Comprehensive Analysis of Metastatic Disease following Surgery for Clinically Localized Cutaneous Melanoma.

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The NCCN considers "baseline staging" (whole body CT or PET scan +/- brain MRI) for all asymptomatic melanoma patients with a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy. The true yield of these workups is unknown. We created cohorts of adult malignant melanoma patients, using the National Cancer Database (2012-2020) to mimic three common scenarios: (1) clinically node negative, with positive sentinel lymph node(s) (SLNB[+]); (2) clinically node negative, with negative sentinel lymph node(s) (SLNB[-]); (3) clinically node positive with confirmed lymph node metastases (cN[+] and pN[+]). Multivariable regression, supervised decision trees, and nomograms were constructed to assess the risk of metastases based on key features. 10,371 patients were SLNB[+], 55,172 were SLNB[-], and 4,012 were cN[+] and pN[+]. The proportion of patients with any metastatic disease (brain metastases) were as follows: SLNB[+]: 1.4% (0.3%); SLNB[-] 0.3% (<0.1%); cN[+] and pN[+] 11.6% (1.6%). On multivariable regression, Breslow depth > 4, ulceration, and lymphovascular invasion were associated with greater risk of metastatic disease. A supervised decision tree for SLNB[+] and SLNB[-] patients found the only groups with >2% risk of metastases were T4 tumors or T2/T3 tumors with ulceration and LVI. Most groups had a negligible risk (<0.1%) of brain metastases. This is the first large analysis to guide the use of imaging for cutaneous melanoma. Among clinically node negative patients, metastatic disease is uncommon and brain metastases are exceedingly rare. Further investigation could promote a tailored approach to metastatic workups guided by individual risk factors.