Abstract

ABSTRACT This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the secret service of al-Shabaab, the Amniyat. Following a brief history of al-Shabaab as a Somali-based terrorist group, the article analyses the capabilities and capacities of the Amniyat, highlighting the most important elements that have contributed to its efficiency. Studying the security sector and particularly the Amniyat is vital for understanding the conflict dynamics in Somalia. The article contends that depending on whether Al Shabaab gains or loses territory, one can expect certain strategic and/or organisational innovations in the future. More importantly, however, it emphasises that even if al-Shabaab is defeated, the Amniyat may survive the terrorist group’s dissolution and present itself as a different entity or merge into a criminal network. Differentiating between the risk of violent extremism and the existence of al-Shabaab is crucial, since the former may outlast the latter.

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