A comparison of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems

Abstract

The predictions of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems (FOA, LOGNAT and FORESTLAND) were compared. The scenario for the model–model comparison consisted of an acute dry deposition of 137Cs over a coniferous forest. The model predictions were subsequently compared (model–data comparison) with values derived from experimental data measured in forests of the Bryansk region in Russia that were contaminated by the Chernobyl accident and that have similar characteristics to the forests described in the scenario. The predictions of radiocaesium levels in the litter-soil layer, berries, needles, wood, whole tree and moose made with the models were in relatively good agreement with each other (within a factor of 1.4–2.9). The best agreement was observed for berries and moose and the worst for wood. There was also good agreement between the model predictions for the same variables and the experimental data (within a factor of 1.2–3.2). In this case, the best agreement was observed for the litter-soil layer and the worst for wood and the whole tree. Overall, at least for the studied scenario and for the first 10 years after deposition, any of the models can be used if the final aim is to estimate average concentrations in different forest components. The agreement between the model predictions worsens with time and there were differences in the form of the time dependencies predicted by the models, especially for wood. This may lead to larger differences between the model predictions and the experimental data for times beyond the period for which data were available for comparison (10 years after the deposition).