A Comparison of Perturbations from an Ensemble Transform and an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System

Abstract

Abstract Two perturbation generation schemes, the ensemble transformation with rescaling (ETR) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are compared for the NCEP operational environment for the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Experiments that utilize each of the two schemes are carried out and evaluated for two boreal summer seasons. It is found that these two schemes generally have comparable performance. Experiments utilizing both perturbation methods fail to generate sufficient spread at medium-range lead times beyond day 8. In general, the EnKF-based experiment outperforms the ETR in terms of the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the first week. In the SH, the ensemble mean forecast is more skillful from the ETR perturbations. Additional experiments are performed with the stochastic total tendency perturbation (STTP) scheme, in which the total tendencies of all model variables are perturbed to represent the uncertainty in the forecast model. An improved spread–error relationship is found for the ETR-based experiments, but the STTP increases the ensemble spread for the EnKF-based experiment that is already overdispersive at early lead times, especially in the SH. With STTP employed, an increase in the EnKF-based CRPSS in the NH is reduced with a larger degradation in both the probability and ensemble-mean forecast skills in the SH. The results indicate that a rescaling of the EnKF initial perturbations and/or tuning of the STTP scheme is required when STTP is applied using the EnKF-based perturbations. This study provided guidance for the replacement of ETR with EnKF perturbations as part of the 2015 GEFS implementation.