A Comparison of HWRF, ARW and NMM Models in Hurricane Katrina (2005) Simulation

Venkata B Dodla,Anjaneyulu Yerramilli,Srinivas Desamsetti

doi:10.3390/ijerph8062447

Abstract

The life cycle of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was simulated using three different modeling systems of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. These are, HWRF (Hurricane WRF) designed specifically for hurricane studies and WRF model with two different dynamic cores as the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The WRF model was developed and sourced from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), incorporating the advances in atmospheric simulation system suitable for a broad range of applications. The HWRF modeling system was developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) based on the NMM dynamic core and the physical parameterization schemes specially designed for tropics. A case study of Hurricane Katrina was chosen as it is one of the intense hurricanes that caused severe destruction along the Gulf Coast from central Florida to Texas. ARW, NMM and HWRF models were designed to have two-way interactive nested domains with 27 and 9 km resolutions. The three different models used in this study were integrated for three days starting from 0000 UTC of 27 August 2005 to capture the landfall of hurricane Katrina on 29 August. The initial and time varying lateral boundary conditions were taken from NCEP global FNL (final analysis) data available at 1 degree resolution for ARW and NMM models and from NCEP GFS data at 0.5 degree resolution for HWRF model. The results show that the models simulated the intensification of Hurricane Katrina and the landfall on 29 August 2005 agreeing with the observations. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over ARW and NMM models in predicting the track and intensification of Hurricane Katrina.

Highlights

Hurricanes, all over the world, are known to be the most common and most devastating of all the natural disasters
Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW), and model systems developed for specific applications as Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System (HWRF) (Hurricane WRF), and WRF/Chem (WRF-Chemistry)
The results from the model integrations with ARW, NMM and HWRF models are presented

Summary

Introduction

Hurricanes, all over the world, are known to be the most common and most devastating of all the natural disasters. While the track is dependent on large-scale processes, intensity changes depend on inner-core dynamics and its relationship with large-scale environment For these reasons, even coarser grid global models were successful in track prediction [2] whereas high resolution mesoscale models were needed for intensity prediction [3]. Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in the prediction of north Atlantic hurricanes through a case study of hurricane Katrina (2005). Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and the Advanced Research WRF (ARW), and model systems developed for specific applications as HWRF (Hurricane WRF), and WRF/Chem (WRF-Chemistry). HWRF model uses specific parameterization schemes of physical processes and advanced vortex initialization which are not available with ARW model.

Life Cycle of Hurricane Katrina

Tropical Cyclone Prediction Models

Vortex Initialization

Model Design and Numerical Experiments

Results and Discussion

Conclusions