A comparison of E. coli concentration estimates quantified by the EPA and a Michigan laboratory network using EPA Draft Method C

Abstract

We evaluated data from 10 laboratories that analyzed water samples from 82 recreational water sites across the state of Michigan between 2016 and 2018. Water sample replicates were analyzed by experienced U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) analysts and Michigan laboratories personnel, many of whom were newly trained, using EPA Draft Method C—a rapid quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) technique that provides same day Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration results. Beach management decisions (i.e. remain open or issue an advisory or closure) based on E. coli concentration estimates obtained by Michigan labs and by the EPA were compared; the beach management decision agreed in 94% of the samples analyzed. We used the Wilcoxon one-sample signed rank test and nonparametric quantile regression to assess (1) the degree of agreement between E. coli concentrations quantified by Michigan labs versus the EPA and (2) Michigan lab E. coli measurement precision, relative to EPA results, in different years and water body types. The median quantile regression curve for Michigan labs versus EPA approximated the 1:1 line of perfect agreement more closely as years progressed. Similarly, Michigan lab E. coli estimates precision also demonstrated yearly improvements. No meaningful difference was observed in the degree of association between Michigan lab and EPA E. coli concentration estimates for inland lake and Great Lakes samples (median regression curve average slopes 0.93 and 0.95, respectively). Overall, our study shows that properly trained laboratory personnel can perform Draft Method C to a degree comparable with experienced EPA analysts. This allows health departments that oversee recreational water quality monitoring to be confident in qPCR results generated by the local laboratories responsible for analyzing the water samples.