A Comparison of Attribute-Focused and Harm-Focused Methods for Assessing the Risk of Organized Crime Groups: Are They in Agreement?

Abstract

Abstract Risk assessment methods are used to map the threat posed by organized crime and assist in the prioritization of policing resources. Within policing, risk assessment methods are currently in use that either focus on the attributes of organized crime groups or the types of harm posed. Statistical analysis was undertaken of risk assessment data produced using one attribute-focused and one harm-focused method. The study was based on a non-random sample of 113 attribute-focused and 77 harm-focused risk assessments of the same 17 OCGs, and a sub-sample of 36 pairs of risk assessments of 16 of the OCGs. A moderate correlation was found between the two methods, despite differences in their risk assessment processes. Lower levels of agreement tended to be associated with OCGs posing high levels of harm, particularly financial and psychological. Using the two risk assessment methods in combination is proposed as a way of building consensus that draws on their alternative perspectives. The techniques applied in this analysis could be used to inform revisions to the methods and their supporting materials, identify outlying risk assessments, and potentially incorporate other information sources such as harm indices.