A comparison of alternative technologies to de-carbonize Canada's passenger transportation sector

Abstract

Using a full systems model of Canada's economy, six alternative scenarios to de-carbonize the personal passenger vehicle fleet are compared to a business as usual non de-carbonized scenario in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, trade disposition of energy commodities, and the physical resources required for energy production. Three scenarios are analyzed to compare the impacts of increasing either ethanol 85, hydrogen, or electricity powered vehicles into the vehicle fleet, with each starting to penetrate the light vehicle stock in 2010 to reach 100% of the new vehicle market by 2050. For each of these three scenarios, we then construct a variant scenario that considers the additional effects of de-carbonizing electricity production. With a de-carbonized electricity sector, net emission reductions are 29% for ethanol 85, and 31% for both hydrogen and electricity. When considering the transportation sector only, net emission reductions equal 13% for ethanol 85, and 14% for hydrogen and electricity. However, although the ethanol scenario results in the lowest reduction in total emissions, it has significant impacts on other parts of the physical resource base. By the time ethanol reaches 5% of the fuel mix in 2015, domestic consumption of grains increases by 20%, in turn impacting crop trade disposition. At this point, emissions are reduced by less than 0.5%, owing to the fossil fuels required since most ethanol is still grain based. By 2050 it is projected that almost all ethanol will be cellulose based, generating a more significant emission reduction but in turn requiring potentially unsustainable amounts of crop residue.