Adoption of electric vehicles in the transport sector: effect on net emission reduction

Abstract

It is estimated that the transport sector contributes to 17-18% of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. Out of which, 63% of these toxic emissions are originating from the internal combustion engine (ICE) based light vehicles. These poisonous emissions negatively impact on the environment, climate, and health and are responsible for asthma, cancer, bronchitis, and sometimes premature death. Governments and policymakers are setting up policy directives and subsidies to replace the ICE-based vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs). The adoption of EVs will shift the energy demand from the transport sector to the electricity sector. As the electricity sector of some countries (e.g., Australia) is still heavily depending on the fossil-fuel based sources, it is argued that by simply adopting EVs in the transport sector would not make a profound impact on the net reduction in carbon emissions. In this paper, we investigated the impact on net carbon emission reduction due to adoption of EVs using the transport and electricity generation data in Australia. We have investigated four case studies by applying various modelling assumptions based on the type of EV, percentage of ICE-based vehicles converting into EVs, and renewable energy generation projections. Finally, study has made some carbon emission projections for the transport sector till 2050 considering a constant conversion rate for ICE vehicles to EVs, annual uptake of renewable energy into the power grid, and increase in number of EVs. With the present rate of adoption of renewable energy into the power generation portfolio, it would take at least another 8-10 years to make a profound impact on emission reduction in the transport sector, and by 2050 a 75% emission reduction can be achieved compared with the current emission levels in the transport sector.