Abstract
BackgroundAs a kind of widely distributed disease in China, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been quickly growing each year, become a serious problem and caused serious damage to the life and health of people and the social events of China and the world because of its high fatality rate. It has been much concerned by all aspects of society. Therefore, developing early warning technology and finding the trend of early development are of quite significance to prevent and control human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS. This study aimed to explore a suitable model for the morbidity of AIDS in China and establish a professional and feasible disease prediction model for the prevention and control works of AIDS.MethodsAt present, the traditional linear model is still utilized by most scholars to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS. In addition, some scholars may attempt to use the nonlinear prediction model. Both prediction models showed good fitting and prediction effects. In China, the incidence of AIDS presents linear and nonlinear characteristics. In this research, the nonlinear back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model and the typical auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) linear model were applied to predict the incidence of HIV/AIDS and compare their fitting effects.ResultsBoth models were capable of predicting the expected cases of AIDS. It was seen that ARIMA and BP-ANN models could be used to forecast the monthly incidence of HIV/AIDS, but the fitting and forecasting effects of the nonlinear BP neural network model were better than those of the traditional linear ARIMA model.ConclusionsIn summary, it was further concluded that the BP-ANN model was a suitable way to monitor and predict the change trend and morbidity of AIDS in China.
Highlights
As a kind of widely distributed disease in China, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been quickly growing each year, become a serious problem and caused serious damage to the life and health of people and the social events of China and the world because of its high fatality rate
Since 1998, the number of provinces affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS has reached 31, which still sees a rapid increase in China [3]
auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model As a common linear model in time series analysis, the ARIMA model is usually constructed as ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) S, p, d, q, P, D, Q and S refer to autoregressive order, number of difference, moving average order, seasonal autoregressive order, number of seasonal difference, seasonal moving average order and time-series of cyclical pattern respectively
Summary
As a kind of widely distributed disease in China, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been quickly growing each year, become a serious problem and caused serious damage to the life and health of people and the social events of China and the world because of its high fatality rate. It has been much concerned by all aspects of society. The epidemic of AIDS/HIV has been worsened to pose serious threats to public health Each year, it seems that new infection cases are increasing in China [4, 5]. In 2015, about 571,000 people (15 years old and above) were infected with HIV [6]
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