Abstract
Electricity market price profile is reasonable if in the high demand times, the higher prices are observed and vice versa. The System Capacity Margin (SCM) demonstrates the abundance of electricity in the wholesale electricity market. Naturally, higher SCM causes to lower price but, behavior distortions have been frequently addressed in the literature. In this paper, we study the overall producers' bidding behaviors participating in Iran Electricity Market (IEM) as the low wind penetrated case and the Danish Electricity Market (DEM) as a high wind penetrated case. An index is introduced to describe the overall market players' behaviors. Then, using adaptive Neurofuzzy inference system, a model for the overall bidding behavior is derived. The actual data of a real electricity market (IEM) are analyzed. Although the total trend of prices is descending while the SCM increases, the results show some unexpected behaviors in IEM. Finally, the overall biding behavior in IEM is compared with DEM. Markov transition probability matrices are used to measure the variability of the market behavior in DEM. According to the results, mitigation approaches are proposed for IEM to release the market tightness problems.
Published Version
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