A Comparative Study of the Effects of the 1872 Storm and Coastal Flood Risk Management in Denmark, Germany, and Sweden

Caroline Hallin,Thorsten Heimann,Nina Baron,Magnus Larson,Aart Kroon,Grit Martinez,Jürgen Jensen,Jacobus L A Hofstede,Björn Almström,Per Sørensen,Arne Arns

doi:10.3390/w13121697

Abstract

From November 12th to 13th in 1872, an extreme coastal flood event occurred in the south Baltic Sea. An unusual combination of winds created a storm surge reaching up to 3.5 m above mean sea level, which is more than a meter higher than all other observations over the past 200 years. On the Danish, German, and Swedish coasts, about 300 people lost their lives. The consequences of the storm in Denmark and Germany were more severe than in Sweden, with significantly larger destruction and higher numbers of casualties. In Denmark and Germany, the 1872 storm has been more extensively documented and remembered and still influences local and regional risk awareness. A comparative study indicates that the collective memory of the 1872 storm is related to the background knowledge about floods, the damage extent, and the response to the storm. Flood marks and dikes help to remember the events. In general, coastal flood defence is to the largest degree implemented in the affected areas in Germany, followed by Denmark, and is almost absent in Sweden, corresponding to the extent of the collective memory of the 1872 storm. Within the affected countries, there is local variability of flood risk awareness associated with the collective memory of the storm. Also, the economic dependency on flood-prone areas and conflicting interests with the tourism industry have influence on flood protection decisions. The processes of climate change adaptation and implementation of the EU Floods Directive are slowly removing these differences in flood risk management approaches.

Highlights

The sensitivity for coastal flooding is usually assessed by using statistical analyses of measured water levels and by applying hydrodynamic models
On November 13th in 1872, an extreme storm event—often referred to as the 1872 storm—caused severe flooding along the coasts surrounding the western parts of the south Baltic Sea (Figure 2)
The literature study results confirm that the 1872 storm was an extreme and unique event in the south Baltic Sea

Summary

Introduction

The sensitivity for coastal flooding is usually assessed by using statistical analyses of measured water levels and by applying hydrodynamic models. The flooding sensitivity is translated to flooding risks, where the value of the flooded area is incorporated. The step is to generate risk awareness and management plans to reduce the risks. In areas where coastal floods result from rare events not even experienced by all generations, the phenomenon of confirmation bias makes it difficult for people to consider and prepare for extreme flood events [2]. In our personal perception of risk, emotion is often more powerful than reason [2,3,4]. The collective memory plays an important role in maintaining risk awareness of extreme events that have not been self-experienced [8,9,10]

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