A comparative study of projection models on China's food economy

China's Food Economy and Its Implications for the Rest of the World

The prospects for China's food security and imports: Will China starve the world via imports?

Since 1978 China has moved gradually from a centrally planned to a mixed economic system of planning and markets. Under the new economic system consumers play more important role in determining China's food production and trade. Therefore, it is important for China's policymakers to understand household food demand because the effects of alternative food policies are conditioned by consumer demand. Information on China's food demand is also important for modeling the world food markets where China has been a major trader. Furthermore, China's long history of consumption rationing and gradual movement to a market economy provide a unique opportunity for studying consumer behavior in an economic transition;This study models China's household food demand in the transition toward a market economy. The major contributions of this study are: (1) a quantitative assessment of the changes in China's average food consumption and nutrient availability and sources through the compilation of annual food balance sheets during 1950 to 1991; (2) theoretical demand models for Chinese urban and rural households; (3) estimation of the associated demand models using the most recently available data; and (4) policy analysis based on the estimated demand models;The results from this study suggest four major conclusions: First, China's average dietary status changed modestly from 1950 to 1978 but has improved significantly since the 1978 economic reform. Second, China's household food consumption is in the transition from grains to animal products. The demand for animal products, and therefore feedgrains, in China is expected to increase at a significant rate. Third, with one-fifth of the world's population but only 7 percent of the earth's arable land, China is likely to be a major importer of wheat, barley, beans, and feedgrains. Fourth, government policy has been a key factor of the changes in China's household food consumption and dietary improvement since 1980 and will continue to play an important role in influencing China's household food consumption and international food trade.

This chapter first examines the reform process of China's foreign trade sector and its impact on China's agricultural trade in the 1980s and 1990s. It then explores the effects of trade liberalization on China's agriculture, using an agriculture sector-wide general equilibrium model. Policy implications are presented in the concluding section.

China's Agricultural Trade and Trade Policy in Context: China's trade regime entering a new century, Barry Naughton China's grain trade - some policy considerations, D. Gale Johnson Economic reform and the changing pattern of China's agricultural trade, Colin A. Carter and Xianghong Li. WTO Accession and Agricultural Trade: Trade liberalization and China's food economy in the 21st century - implications for China's national food security, Jikun Huang, Chunlai Chen, Scott Rozelle and Francis Tuan Implications of reform and WTO accession for China's agricultural policies, Will Martin. Commodity Markets and Commodity Policy in China: Quotas and grain production in China, Dewen Wang, Jikun Huang, Daniel A. Sumner and Scott Rozelle Price linkages between Chinese and world grain markets, Laping Wu Protection and comparative advantage of Chinese agriculture - implications for regional and national specialization, Cheng Fang and John C. Beghin China's agricultural export and import behaviour, Wen S. Chern and Side Yu China's rural household purchasing decisions for high-valued food products - implications for the US food industry, Thomas I. Wahl and Tong Han. Agricultural Productivity Projects: Agricultural productivity growth in China - farm level versus national measurement, Colin A. Carter, Jing Chen and Baojin Chu Wheat genetic diversity in China - measurement and cost, Erika C.H. Meng, Melinda Smale, Scott Rozelle, Ruifa Hu and Jikun Huang Sources of growth and supply response - a cross-commodity analysis of China's grain sector, Hunter Colby, Xinshen Diao and Agapi Somwaru.

Exploring China's food security evolution from a local perspective

China is undergoing a marked transition in its diet and nutritional status patterns. This study determines the structural change in the impact of income on food consumption in China during 1989-93. Utilizing data from a longitudinal study of 3800 households in China evidence points to a shift in the relationship between income dietary structure and total nutrient intake at the macrolevel. Overall it is noted that the increase in income over time in the country coincided with a shift in the demand for inferior and normal food groups. In addition there was a pronounced increase in the income elasticity for more luxury foods during the specified period while less superior goods became more inferior over this 4-year span. Such an increase in income elasticities for total energy and for energy from fat suggest a worsening of the composition of the diet in ways that are linked to obesity and obesity-related diseases as incomes continue to rise. In view of this several implications for the formulation of future nutrition policies in China are cited.

As a country with a large population, China has always attached great importance to the development of the primary industry. However, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further increased the impact on the global food market. The international food trade is experiencing unprecedented changes in a century, and China's food security situation is extremely grim. Food security is an important basis for national security. Problems in food supply will inevitably affect other aspects of society and have a negative impact on the economic situation and global development. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current situation of China's international grain trade, combine with open data, analyze the challenges faced by international grain trade, and make contributions to China's national food security.

An accurate assessment of food security and its challenges is essential for formulating effective measures and promoting sustainable socioeconomic development. This study develops an evaluation system for China's food security, focusing on four dimensions: food supply, food access, food production stability, and food continuity. The entropy weight extended matter element model is used for quantitative processing, which ensures that the integrity of the information can be guaranteed to a greater extent while reducing the influence of subjective factors, and then, the study evaluates the food security of different functional areas in China, and finally, it diagnoses the main obstacles to food security by using the obstacle degree model. (1) From 2000 to 2020, China's food security level fluctuated, initially declining, and then increasing. The food security level in major production and marketing areas is generally higher, while the primary marketing areas exhibit the lowest security levels. (2) The level of grain yields and the total power of machinery per unit area are the key factors affecting food security; the impact of inputs of agricultural materials (fertilizers and pesticides) on food security has decreased and is constantly stabilizing. In the main marketing area, the per capita food share is significantly lower than in the other functional areas, which has the greatest impact on food security. (3) Analysis of the obstacle factors reveals that the food supply and access security subsystems are crucial for ensuring national, production, and marketing security. From 2000 to 2020, the average obstacle degrees of food supply and food access security at the national level were 46.56% and 21.17%, respectively; for the production and marketing areas, they were 58.47% and 21.45%; and for primary marketing areas, they were 37.69% and 26.59%. In major grain-producing areas, the main obstacles lay within the food supply security and food production stability subsystems, with average obstacle degrees of 53.77% and 15.67%, respectively, from 2000 to 2020. The above results provide a scientific basis for comprehensively improving the level of food security in China, optimizing the structure of food production in each functional area, and formulating regionalized policies for stabilizing and maintaining food production and supply.

The U.S.‐China trade conflict has already considerably reshaped China's food imports, and should the conflict continue, it might have substantial impacts on global food supply dynamics as well as China's food supply sources. We address these implications by analyzing recent trends in China's food imports and associated use of land and water resources. We show that China's limited land and water availability will make it challenging to replace soybean imports from the United States with its own production, but switching to new trading partners by investment and cooperation could secure China's food supply while avoiding much negative environmental impacts on exporting countries.

Reflections on China's food security and land use policy under rapid urbanization

Structural and conformational changes concomitant with the E1–E2 transition in H+K+-ATPase: a comparative protein modeling study

From the perspective of China's trading partners, few policy issues are as important as China's emergence onto world agricultural markets. In this essay, we argue that if China is to become a modern developed country, a massive structural transformation of China's agricultural sector must occur. We offer a forward-looking vision of China's food economy and its links with the world in the 21st century. We believe that gains from specialization when China moves to a country with specialized family farms will be huge compared to the returns that have resulted from decollectivization. Following a structural revolution in China's agricultural sector, China will become a major force in world food markets. This transformation will be characterized by land reform, a massive shift of labor out of agriculture, expanded farm size, a significant change in regional cropping patterns, more interprovincial trade, and greater international trade. This structural transformation will occur as long as there is strong economic and political pressure to raise agricultural labor productivity, liberalize markets, boost the rule of law, and increase per capita farm incomes relative to urban incomes

Food safety is very important, for it is related to the health of people, the social harmony and stability, the development of national economy and even the survival of our nation. But in recent years, our food safety problems appear frequently, and it not only brings great harm to the people's health and safety, but also seriously affects our country's politics, economy, and culture. This paper summarizes the current situation and major problems in our food safety supervision model, and analyzes the causes of these problems. Meanwhile it introduces the experiences of foreign countries in combination with the fundamental realities of our country, and then put forward some suggestions and countermeasures to transform the food safety supervision model in our country.

Food security and the utilization of natural resources in a sustainable manner are vital to the expansion of China's agricultural system. The relationship between environmental pressure and dietary structure has influenced the quantity and spatial distribution of China's food supply and demand, but it has not been evaluated. Our research centered on the security of China's food nutrition-resources-food (NRF) system, considering the inherent relationship between food security, nutritional health, and resource security. The following are the study's findings: (1) The Chinese population is rapidly changing from a diet focused on grains to a more diverse diet. Between 1990 and 2019, the dietary quality and nutritional status of Chinese individuals have vastly improved. In terms of nutrient levels, discrepancies between urban and rural resident persist, with urban residents consuming a diet that is closer to the ideal structure. However, the structure of rural residents' food consumption is diversifying, and the gap between urban and rural residents is gradually narrowing. (2) From 2000 to 2019, the pressure, status, and response indices of China's NRF system all show an upward trend, and the security of the NRF system has steadily grown. The magnitude of change in the response index exceeded that of the state index, which exceeded that of the pressure index. This indicates that the increase in the pressure and state indices of the NRF system was primarily attributable to the effectiveness of policy efforts.