A comparative assessment of the economics and proliferation resistance of advanced nuclear energy systems

Abstract

Three advanced nuclear energy systems and their fuel cycles are compared with respect to both their relative economic potential and proliferation resistance. These systems include the light-water reactor (LWR) once-through cycle, the breeder and light-water reactor fuel cycles on plutonium recycle and, lastly, an advanced converter-breeder system on a denatured thorium cycle. To quantify the relative proliferation risk of these systems, a multi-attribute decision analysis method was applied. Economic potential was measured on the basis of an electricity generation cost model. Results indicate that the plutonium recycle LWR-breeder option can be made sufficiently proliferation resistant if methods that denature the plutonium and/or do not separate out a pure plutonium stream are utilized. The denatured thorium cycle shows no obvious proliferation advantage and exhibits some economic penalty when compared to the other systems. It is therefore recommended that further research and development concentrate on the development of diversion-resistant technology for the mixed-oxide, plutonium-based LWR-breeder system.