A combined probabilistic and deterministic method for an improved capacity outage probability table synthesis using monte carlo methods

Abstract

An electrical power system is typically operated at least cost given some technical and reliability constraints. To that end, many utilities use deterministic methods such as n−1 criterion in order to ensure reliability. This method though being used worldwide and for a really long time can be expensive as contingencies occur rarely. In order to evaluate power systems, it must be noted that contingencies are stochastic in nature. Since reliability of supply and economic cost must be balanced, probabilistic analysis seems to be one of the tools which can be applied. In the case of generator dispatch, the most recognized probability tool is the Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). However, the synthesis of the COPT using the Recursive Method as proposed by Billinton and Allan can be cumbersome. This paper presents an integration of probabilistic and deterministic methods for outage analysis. It shows an alternative method to develop the COPT using a pseudo-deterministic method combined with a Monte Carlo method. Thus, making the process of developing a COPT simpler and can reduce computation time.