Probabilistic reliability evaluation for power systems with high penetration of renewable power generation

Abstract

In this paper, a probabilistic analytical approach for reliability evaluation of power systems with high penetration of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) renewable power generation is presented. Due to intermittent nature of wind and solar power, the traditional deterministic method cannot properly address such uncertainties, probabilistic methods need to be utilized. In this paper, the loss of load method, one of the most effective probabilistic analytical methods, is adopted. The generation model is represented by the capacity outage probability table (COPT). The load model is presented by the load duration curve (LDC). Both generation and load models are used to obtain the system reliability considering wind and PV sources with certain forced outage rate (FOR). Simulation results are obtained using MATLAB. It is found that renewable energy sources can significantly improve the system reliability, but not as good as conventional power generators with the same rated capacity due to the actual reduced capacity value of renewable energy sources caused by intermittency. This analytical analysis is useful for the power system planner to quantify reliability improvements by installing grid-connected hybrid renewable power generation.