Abstract
Rabies is a lethal viral disease and dogs are the major disease reservoir in the Philippines. Spatio-temporal variations in environmental factors are known to affect disease dynamics. Some rabies-affected countries considered investigating the role of weather components in driving rabies cases and it has helped them to strategize their control efforts. In this study, cointegration analysis was conducted between the monthly reported rabies cases and the weather components, such as temperature and precipitation, to verify the effect of weather components on rabies incidence in Davao City, Philippines. With the Engle-Granger cointegration tests, we found that rabies cases are cointegrated into each of the weather components. It was further validated, using the Granger causality test, that each weather component predicts the rabies cases and not vice versa. Moreover, we performed the Johansen cointegration test to show that the weather components simultaneously affect the number of rabies cases, which allowed us to estimate a vector-error correction model for rabies incidence as a function of temperature and precipitation. Our analyses showed that canine rabies in Davao City was weather-sensitive, which implies that rabies incidence could be projected using established long-run relationship among reported rabies cases, temperature, and precipitation. This study also provides empirical evidence that can guide local health officials in formulating preventive strategies for rabies control and eradication based on weather patterns.
Highlights
Rabies is an acute viral infection that causes encephalomyelitis [1], which affects the nervous system of infected mammals
The time-series plots of the variables and their first differences are presented in Fig 1 to determine whether or not the time-series satisfies the conditions for cointegration analysis
The local government of Davao City has been intensifying campaigns to eliminate rabies with the following strategies: vaccination, castration, impounding, and the conduct of information and education campaign (IEC) sessions. This is the first report in the country which demonstrates the impact of weather components such as precipitation and temperature on canine rabies incidence via cointegration analysis
Summary
Rabies is an acute viral infection that causes encephalomyelitis [1], which affects the nervous system of infected mammals.
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