Abstract

Accurate biological models are critical to predict biotic responses to climate change and human‐caused disturbances. Current understanding of organismal responses to change stems from studies over relatively short timescales. However, most projections lack long‐term observations incorporating the potential for transgenerational phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaption, the keys to resistance. Here, we describe unexpected temporal compensatory responses in biomineralization as a mechanism for resistance to altered environmental conditions and predation impacts in a calcifying foundation species. We evaluated exceptional archival specimens of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis collected regularly between 1904 and 2016 along 15 km of Belgian coastline, along with records of key environmental descriptors and predators. Contrary to global‐scale predictions, shell production increased over the last century, highlighting a protective capacity of mussels for qualitative and quantitative trade‐offs in biomineralization as compensatory responses to altered environments. We also demonstrated the role of changes in predator communities in stimulating unanticipated biological trends that run contrary to experimental predictive models under future climate scenarios. Analysis of archival records has a key role for anticipating emergent impacts of climate change.

Highlights

  • As global climate change accelerates (Kirtman et al, 2013), we need accurate predictions about biological responses if we are to prevent emergent damage to the biosphere (Nagelkerken & Connell, 2015; Urban et al, 2016)

  • We demonstrated the role of changes in predator communities in stimulating unanticipated biological trends that run contrary to experimental predictive models under future climate scenarios

  • Historical studies on archival material are correlative in their nature and might, be constrained by the limited parallel records of environmental information at the corresponding timescale of the biological processes analysed, they are especially useful to (a) assess ecological effects of stressors as they are introduced over climate change relevant timescales (McCoy & Ragazzola, 2014); and (b) include evaluation of population responses via transgenerational phenotypic plasticity and possible long-term adaption, both keys to resistance (Thomsen et al, 2017; Vargas et al, 2017), complementing experimental data but not incorporated in any other approach (Cross et al, 2018; Vargas et al, 2017)

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Summary

| INTRODUCTION

As global climate change accelerates (Kirtman et al, 2013), we need accurate predictions about biological responses if we are to prevent emergent damage to the biosphere (Nagelkerken & Connell, 2015; Urban et al, 2016). Historical studies on archival material are correlative in their nature and might, be constrained by the limited parallel records of environmental information at the corresponding timescale of the biological processes analysed, they are especially useful to (a) assess ecological effects of stressors as they are introduced over climate change relevant timescales (McCoy & Ragazzola, 2014); and (b) include evaluation of population responses via transgenerational phenotypic plasticity and possible long-term adaption, both keys to resistance (Thomsen et al, 2017; Vargas et al, 2017), complementing experimental data but not incorporated in any other approach (Cross et al, 2018; Vargas et al, 2017). By combining extensive long-term datasets of key environmental descriptors and predators in a naturally controlled system, across a centennial timescale incorporating long-term acclimation and adaption, we describe (a) compensatory trade-offs in shell biomineralization as potential mechanism for resistance to altered environments and species interactions; and (b) the role of changes in predator communities in stimulating unanticipated trends in biomineralization that run contrary to global-scale projections under future climate scenarios

| MATERIALS AND METHODS
Findings
| DISCUSSION
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