A Case Study on the Calculation of Evacuation Demand for Outdoor Evacuation Sites: Focusing on the Use of Population Data

Abstract

In Korea, following the Gyeongju earthquake, the selection criteria were prepared by dividing outdoor and indoor relief centers. A number of earthquake shelters have been designated and operated. However, although certain evaluation factors and indicators exist to assess the physical characteristics of earthquake shelters and the adequacy of their location, there is still no clear standard to be used for the calculation of evacuation demand. Therefore, in this study, the evacuation demand was calculated using the census population data and mobile location-based floating population data. The implications were then drawn to contribute to the establishment of standards for future evacuation plans. The results reveal that, assuming that mobile location-based floating population data are accurate, using census population data in calculating evacuation demand can cause a significant level of error. In the case of disasters such as earthquakes, where it is difficult to accurately predict when they will occur and on what scale, in both time and space, efforts are needed to reduce any uncertainty.