A case study for determination of seismic risk priorities in Van (Eastern Turkey)

Abstract

Lake Van Basin, located in Eastern Turkey, is worth examining in terms of seismicity due to large-scale losses of property and life during the historical and instrumental period. The most important and largest province in this basin is Van. Recent indicators of the high seismicity risk in the province are damage occurring after devastating earthquakes in 2011 (Mw=7.2 and Mw=5.6) and lastly in 2020 Khoy (Mw=5.9). The seismic hazard analysis for Van and its districts in Eastern Turkey was performed in probabilistic manner. Analyses were made for thirteen different districts in Van. In this study, information is given about the tectonic setting and seismicity of Van. The probabilistic seismic hazard curves were obtained for a probability of exceedance of 2%, 10% and 50% in 50-year periods. The PGA values in the Van province vary from 0.24 g – 0.43 g for earthquakes with repetition period of 475 years. Risk priorities were determined for all districts. The highest risk was calculated for Caldiran and the lowest risk was found for Gurpinar. Risk priorities for buildings in all districts were also determined via rapid seismic assessment for reinforced-concrete and masonry buildings in this study.