Abstract
As the production of batteries for electric vehicles continues to grow, so does the demand for primary battery raw materials. Against the supply risks and environmental issues associated with raw material mining and transportation, battery material circularity has become a burgeoning topic in academia, policy, and industry. While prior research has explored secondary supply and demand, an important gap remains regarding the break-even points (BEPs) where full circularity is reached (secondary supply = demand). Using a material flow analysis, this study offers two contributions: First, it calculates the BEPs for critical raw materials (lithium, cobalt, nickel) in different regions. The results show that China will realize full circularity more than ten years earlier than Europe and the US for lithium and nickel and seven years earlier for cobalt. Second, it identifies levers (e.g., earlier full electrification) that can accelerate full circularity, thereby demonstrating how independence from primary raw materials can be achieved earlier.
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